Gold Hits Another Record High, Why Wall Street Sees Path to $5,000
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank warn that Trump’s battle with the Fed could supercharge bullion’s rally.
Gold (XAUUSD) has shattered yet another record, closing above $3,560 an ounce and cementing its role as 2025’s standout asset. The surge, which has already lifted bullion more than 35% this year, has Wall Street’s biggest banks revisiting just how high the yellow metal could climb. Increasingly, the conversation centers on an extraordinary number: $5,000 an ounce.
The spark behind this latest rally is not just central bank buying or expectations of interest rate cuts. Instead, it is politics. President Donald Trump’s intensifying confrontation with the Federal Reserve has rattled investor faith in dollar-denominated assets and, in turn, pushed gold’s safe-haven appeal to the forefront.
Also Read: Why This Tiny Wearable Tech Stock Looks Poised for a Massive Breakout
Goldman Sachs Raises the Alarm
In a note widely circulated this week, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) outlined how Trump’s efforts to weaken the Fed’s independence could drive bullion into uncharted territory.
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, wrote:
A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status. In contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust.
The bank’s baseline projection calls for gold to average $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. But in what Goldman calls a “tail-risk” scenario, if just 1% of privately owned U.S. Treasuries were reallocated into bullion, prices could rocket to nearly $5,000.
“Gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space,” Goldman analyst Samantha Dart emphasized in a separate note.
JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank Join the Chorus
Goldman’s bullish stance is far from isolated. Earlier this year, JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) suggested that under current macroeconomic pressures, gold could realistically climb as high as $6,000 an ounce. That call, while aggressive, has gained traction as market turbulence deepens.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) also weighed in this week, with strategist Jim Reid pointing to labor market softness and the near-certainty of upcoming Fed rate cuts as a further tailwind for bullion. His team noted that “firms were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty,” echoing the broader narrative that an unsettled economic outlook is sending investors into hard assets.
Read Now: How to Capitalize on the Five Pillars of Growth in the Red-Hot Wearables Market
Stocks, Cryptos, and Miners in the Mix
Gold’s climb comes against a backdrop of broad equity strength, though the gains pale in comparison. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed Thursday up 0.83% at 6,502.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.77% to 45,621.29. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) gained 0.98%, ending at 21,707.69.
Yet, it is gold miners like Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) (TSX: NGT) that have truly benefited. Shares of the world’s largest gold producer have more than doubled this year, reflecting both soaring bullion prices and renewed investor enthusiasm for hard-asset plays.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies have faltered. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) slipped 1.53% to $110,430.72, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) tumbled 3.51% to $5,314.93. For now, digital assets have ceded their “digital gold” narrative back to the original safe-haven metal.
Political Risk Fuels the Rally
Trump’s attempts to reshape the Fed remain the wild card in this story. His push to remove Governor Lisa Cook, alongside threats of replacing Chair Jerome Powell, has unsettled markets that historically counted on the central bank’s independence.
“If 1% of the privately-owned U.S. Treasury market were to flow to gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 per troy ounce,” Struyven reiterated in Goldman’s research.
That kind of shift, while small in relative terms, could set off shockwaves across global markets. And the longer the White House pursues political control of monetary policy, the stronger the case for holding bullion becomes.
What Comes Next
For investors, the calculus is becoming clear. Gold has broken record after record this year, and its trajectory shows little sign of stalling. Wall Street consensus suggests $4,000 by 2026 is achievable, but the risk scenarios point higher, much higher.
Whether bullion actually touches $5,000 depends on how far the Trump administration goes in reshaping the Fed, how aggressively central banks continue to accumulate gold, and whether private investors truly diversify away from Treasuries.
For now, one thing is certain: gold’s grip on the safe-haven crown has rarely looked stronger.
Small Cap News Movers & Winner Deep Dive – By WealthyVC.com
We scan over 10,000 publicly listed stocks across all seven North American exchanges to uncover the market-moving news that actually matters—focusing on high-quality, liquid, growth-oriented companies in sectors attracting serious capital, like AI, blockchain, biotech, and consumer tech.
Each week, we publish Small Cap News Movers, a curated roundup of small and micro-cap stocks surging on meaningful catalysts. We break down what’s driving the move, tap into rumors swirling on social media, and surface sharp insights from both industry experts and retail sleuths.
From this list, we select one standout stock for our Small Cap Winner Deep Dive, released the next day, where we take a closer look at the fundamentals, narrative, and technicals that suggest this winner could keep running.
Powered by our proprietary 4-element, AI-driven analysis system, our goal is simple: cut through the noise, remove the emotion, and help investors dominate the small-cap market with momentum-driven strategies—completely free.
Sign up for email alerts to get the moves before our social media followers.
Read Next: This Small Wearable Tech Stock Just Joined Wall Street’s Crypto Treasury Movement
Join the Discussion in the WVC Facebook Investor Group
Do you have a stock tip or news story suggestion? Please email us at: invest@wealthyvc.com.
Disclaimer: Wealthy VC does not hold a position in any of the stocks, ETFs or cryptocurrencies mentioned in this article.
