Trump Media (DJT) Stock Rebounds on Eve of Election as Betting Odds Show Trump Edge
Shares of DJT stock rallied 12% on Monday, mirroring Trump’s rebound in the betting markets, with the former President holding the lead heading into Tuesday’s election.
Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT) stock surged on the eve of the US presidential election, reflecting renewed optimism in betting markets favoring a Donald Trump victory. Trump Media, which controls the social media platform Truth Social, saw shares rise over 12% in Monday trading, suggesting that traders are placing high hopes on a Republican win. This dramatic increase in stock price comes after a volatile week marked by steep correction and growing anticipation for Election Day.
With polls and betting markets in constant flux, the stock has become a barometer of Trump’s perceived election chances, and its movement has tracked closely with shifts in public sentiment. Many investors see the company as a proxy for Trump’s odds of victory, and, as those odds rise, so too does the value of Trump Media stock.
Election Markets Point to Tight Race
Prediction markets are currently showing mixed but generally favorable odds for Trump, with Polymarket giving him a 60% chance of winning the presidency. Meanwhile, Trump’s share prices on the betting exchange Kalshi suggest a 58% chance of victory. However, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in other respects: she has a commanding lead in the popular vote on Polymarket with a 73% chance, suggesting the race may ultimately come down to the swing states.
Renowned market analyst Brian Geiger, known for accurately predicting previous elections, expressed confidence in a Trump win, expecting him to capture 297 electoral votes.
“I stand by my prediction,” Geiger stated on social media, adding, “It won’t be super close, and one of them will win the large majority of swing states.”
His forecast lends significant weight to Trump’s advantage in betting markets, fueling speculation that a Republican victory could lead to even greater financial gains for Trump Media stock.
A Wild Week for Trump Media
The rally on Monday brought a temporary end to a volatile period for Trump Media, which has seen wild swings over the past month. Last week, shares dropped by 40% in just a few days as Harris gained ground in the betting markets, erasing a large portion of the $3.6 billion added to Trump’s net worth over the past month.
John Rekenthaler, Morningstar’s (NASDAQ: MORN) vice president of research, has called Trump Media “the most emotional stock on the exchange,” a sentiment underscored by its erratic movements and heavy retail trading. Retail investors continue to monitor the stock closely, making it one of the most-watched equities on platforms like StockTwits, where Trump supporters and detractors frequently debate its value.
This recent volatility has not deterred some investors. Retail sentiment, though split, appears to lean toward optimism with Monday’s rally suggesting what some analysts call “pre-election euphoria.”
Rekenthaler cautions that the stock’s fate is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes, stating that if Trump loses it could “go to zero.” However, if he wins, it “could do anything,” he added.
This binary outlook on the company’s performance has made it a magnet for speculative trading.
A High-Risk Gamble
Despite the fervor around Trump Media, the company’s underlying business remains comparatively modest. Truth Social has struggled to compete with larger social media platforms, and its earnings pale in comparison to giants like X, TikTok, and Instagram. Last quarter, the company reported revenue under $1 million. Even so, the stock has more than doubled in value since the beginning of 2024, underscoring its role as an “affinity stock” for Trump supporters rather than a reflection of strong financial fundamentals.
Retail investors aren’t the only ones noticing this dynamic. A report from S3 Partners noted that Trump Media’s stock is primed for a potential short squeeze if Trump wins. The same report warns that a loss could be disastrous for the stock, potentially rendering it “worthless” as it would lose its symbolic association with a Trump-led administration. S3’s model indicated a potential 50% upside if Trump clinches the election, but just as much downside if he loses.
Investor Sentiment: Divided But Hopeful
While polls suggest a close race, recent trends in online betting markets show Trump with an edge over Harris, pushing the stock to its highest levels in weeks. Yet, not all investors are rushing to buy. StockTwits, a social media platform for retail investors, reports that sentiment around Trump Media remains mixed, with many expressing skepticism over the stock’s sustainability beyond Election Day.
Redegen, a high-profile prediction market trader with holdings in both Trump and Harris election shares, has maintained that while the data favors a Trump win, betting markets may still overestimate his chances.
“Our data still points to a Trump presidency,” Redegen stated.
He remains bullish on Harris’s popular vote victory but acknowledges the complexities of the electoral college, emphasizing that his positions are more strategic than ideological.
Financial Stakes High Ahead of Election
The stakes surrounding Trump Media are not just political but also personal for the former president. Trump, who holds a majority stake in his media company, has seen his net worth swing wildly as stock values fluctuate in response to political developments. Monday’s rally alone added approximately $500 million to Trump’s net worth, recovering some of the losses incurred last week.
As Tuesday’s vote approaches, investors remain focused on both the election outcome and its implications for Trump Media’s future. While the stock has seen substantial gains this year—up over 113% in 2024—the road ahead remains uncertain. Analysts warn that a potential Trump loss would almost certainly dampen the company’s prospects, while a win could catalyze further growth as Trump Media potentially reclaims a central role in political discourse.
For now, all eyes are on Tuesday’s results. The outcome will not only shape the country’s political direction but will also set the stage for Trump Media’s future—an affinity stock that, for better or worse, reflects the divided and highly charged atmosphere surrounding this historic election.
Trump Media (DJT) Stock Price Action and Chart
Shares of Trump Media (NASDAQ: DJT) stock closed Monday’s trading session at $34.34, up 12.37% on the day.
YTD, DJT stock is up 96.79%.
View Trump Media Interactive Stock Chart on Barchart
Join the Discussion in the WVC Facebook Investor Group
Have a Stock Tip or New Story Suggestion? Email us at Invest@WealthyVC.com
Disclaimer: Wealthy VC does not hold a position in any of the stocks, ETFs or cryptocurrencies mentioned in this article.
